Forecasters with the Central Pacific Hurricane Center expect Hurricane Olaf to bring little impact to Hawaii Island besides pounding surf and the potential for enhanced trade winds and their showers.
Forecasters with the Central Pacific Hurricane Center expect Hurricane Olaf to bring little impact to Hawaii Island besides pounding surf and the potential for enhanced trade winds and their showers.
They also caution there could be changes to the forecast track that likely will put the churning, 300-mile-wide storm well east and then northeast of the island during the weekend.
“I wouldn’t want to get keyed into that track,” forecaster Pete Donaldson said. “The models are in good agreement, but it’s far enough out it could change.”
Located 995 miles southeast of the Big Island and peaking with 150 mph winds Tuesday, Olaf was a Category 4 cyclone slowly making its way west-northwest at 10 mph through warm 84-degree waters. Hurricane force winds extended 40 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds reached out 140 miles.
The storm was set to begin gradual weakening today. A more northwesterly turn was expected to bring the system beside the island, but about 500 miles east Saturday.
At that time, winds are forecast to have weakened to the 90 mph range as a result of increased shear and cooler sea temperatures. But Olaf is forecast to remain a major hurricane through Friday.
A moist environment and low shear combined with ample warmth from the ocean were expected to keep the cyclone spinning winds out at about 150 to 155 mph today, just below the threshold for Category 5. The storm is the season’s record 15th tropical cyclone to make its way into the Central North Pacific basin.
Donaldson said precise effects are hard to predict until the track of the hurricane is more solid. Surf could begin to build Wednesday, leading to waves large enough to cause damage and life-threatening conditions along east and south shorelines — but it’s too early to know how high the swell will be, he said. Moisture along the edges of the hurricane could bring rainfall mainly to the windward side of the island by Friday.
The good news is Olaf will switch the winds out of the north rather than cutting off the trade winds the way multiple tropical systems did during the summer. That means the island possibly will receive a brisk northerly flow rather than sticky, humid conditions.
Email Bret Yager at byager@westhawaiitoday.com.